Matthew Sigel, the leader of digital asset research at VanEck, has recently addressed rumors surrounding the potential launch of the company’s Solana spot ETF, linking its prospects to the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election. Sigel suggests that VanEck’s decision to pursue the Solana ETF is influenced by the potential impact of a victory for Donald Trump, whose policies may be favorable to the regulatory landscape for crypto assets.
The deadline for the ETF application has been scheduled for March 2025, indicating that VanEck is strategically planning to launch it after the November 2024 presidential election. When questioned about this timing, Sigel was direct in his response, stating, “I can confirm.”
Analysts observe that the likelihood of new cryptocurrency ETF approvals is quite low under the current Joe Biden administration, but could improve under a Trump presidency, where a new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be appointed to replace the current chairman, Gary Gensler.
One of the challenges that VanEck and other organizations face in seeking approval for spot ETFs is the absence of a Solana futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Traditionally, the presence of futures is seen as a prerequisite for regulatory approval, as was the case with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, Grayscale argued in a lawsuit against the SEC that the surveillance sharing agreements (SSA) governing Bitcoin futures could be adapted for spot ETFs, offering sufficient measures to address fraud and other misconduct.
The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency ETFs continues to be complex, as recent SEC lawsuits against platforms like Coinbase and Kraken have further complicated the implementation of SSAs between exchanges and ETF issuers. Bloomberg and other analysts acknowledge that while a robust SSA may be adequate to meet regulatory requirements, VanEck’s strategy will largely depend on a change in SEC leadership and/or legislative interventions.
At the time of writing, the price of SOL was recorded at US$147.04, experiencing a 1% decrease in the last 24 hours.
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