Prediction markets are suggesting that Joe Biden, the current president of the United States, is likely to win the popular vote in the upcoming election, although his re-election is not guaranteed. According to trading on the Polymarket platform, Biden’s “yes” shares are being traded at 56 cents, indicating a 56% chance of him winning the popular vote. If this prediction holds true, it will result in a payout of $1 in USDC stablecoin per share.
In contrast, Donald Trump, who surprised many by winning the presidency in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, is currently seen as having a solid 36% chance of winning the popular vote in the next election, based on recent data. However, he is considered the frontrunner in the presidential race, with a 57% chance of winning compared to Biden’s 35%, in Polymarket’s largest betting market, which has already amassed a record $182 million.
A political analyst remarked that if Trump were to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote, it could lead to a resurgence of “Not My President” rallies, highlighting the idiosyncrasies of the American electoral system.
Regarding crypto donations, Biden’s campaign definitively refuted the possibility of accepting them until Friday, despite initial odds of 48%. The market closed with a resounding “no” on June 21 after the campaign confirmed its stance.
Rumors surrounding Barron Trump’s involvement in the development of the Solana-based DJT token caused a stir on social media and forums, but a Polymarket contract on the matter was ultimately resolved as “no,” following a dispute and final review.
The dwindling belief in the validity of the claim, with only 19% of Polymarket traders still holding on to it, marks a significant decline from the peak of 60% observed previously. This market now stands as the second largest in terms of crypto-related volume on the platform.
It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of financial loss.
